Five-minute engine

Tonight timeline

Every interval is stopped by at least one physical or safety gate.

11:30 PMScore 0Moon is too high for primary-bow geometry
Moonbow Score from 5:00 PM through 6:00 AM. No viable sustained window.255075100

Deterministic

Moon + geometry

Illumination93%
Peak altitude38.5°
Bow error

Effective skyline 22.3°: 16.4° bare earth + 5.5° trees/clearance. The primary-bow cone is checked against the modeled mist field.

Astronomy Engine (JPL-validated)Calculated locally at five-minute resolutionnot live

Seasonal history

Moonlight path

Expected transmission48%
Forecast modelsNot yet
GOES nowcastNot yet
Planning signal only

A ten-year nighttime sky-cover history informs this score. It does not predict clouds on this date.

NOAA NCEI nighttime cloud history2015–2024 London-Corbin nighttime observations; seasonal tendency, not a date-specific forecastnot live

USGS 03404500

River + mist

STRONG MIST

DischargeUnavailable
Seasonal percentile50th
6-hour trendunknown

Flow drives a saturating mist-production proxy. Exceptional flood flow receives a small conservative overspray penalty rather than assuming more water is always better. Wind direction separately estimates whether spray stays in the useful viewing zone.

USGS 1991–2025 daily-flow distribution15-day day-of-year window; not a current river readingnot live

Conjunctive model

Why tonight

  • Lunar
    80
  • Geometry
    100
  • Cloud
    48
  • Mist
    100
  • Mist Placement
    86
  • Atmosphere
    100
  • Wind
    88

Factors multiply. Impossible geometry is a hard gate; cloud transmission, mist production and mist placement cannot be averaged away by strong unrelated conditions.

Primary viewpoint

Falls Overlook

Park at the Visitor Center lot, follow signs toward the lower Falls overlooks, and use the Falls Overlook facing the mist below the main drop.

A paved accessible overlook is available from the Visitor Center area. The closest lower platforms include stairs and can be wet after dark.

Open driving directions Platform coordinate mapped from public trail and aerial data; verify posted park routing on arrival.
35

CLIMATOLOGY / PLANNING

Forecast confidence

  • Moon geometry and the cached local skyline are deterministic
  • Weather is intentionally replaced by seasonal planning context beyond seven days

Official planning envelope

Next moonbow windows

Full 2026 calendar

Estimated Moonbow Chance is a coarse model estimate, not an empirically calibrated success frequency.

The Moonbow Score is the underlying physical opportunity index; forecast confidence is calculated separately.

This date is inside Kentucky State Parks’ approximate 2026 moonbow schedule.

The tree-line and mist-placement corrections remain conservative and will be refined with observer reports.